Credit Investments

Comprehensive Guide to Fixed Income and Debt Securities

Key Takeaways

  • Credit investments offer lower risk and more predictable returns than equities
  • Government bonds provide the safest credit exposure with lowest yields
  • Corporate bonds offer higher yields but come with default risk
  • Credit ratings help assess default probability and required risk premiums
  • Structured credit and private credit provide additional diversification opportunities

Besides investing in equity, which means being an "owner" of the company, investors may also lend money to the company by buying a corporate bond. In credit investment, sometimes referred to as "debt investing", an investor lends money to the borrower, and benefits from earning interest on the loan over time.

As bonds are tradable, an investor may also gain profit by selling the corporate bond at a higher price, if the bond's yield to maturity declines over the holding period. In general, credit investments are considered to come at a lower risk than equity investments, but also come at a lower return. However, significant loss can occur in the case of default, where the investor can lose a large portion if not the whole investment.

Credit vs. Equity Risk-Return Comparison

Credit Investments
Volatility:4-12%
Expected Return:3-8% p.a.
Max Drawdown:10-30%
Income Type:Fixed Interest
Equity Investments
Volatility:15-30%
Expected Return:8-12% p.a.
Max Drawdown:40-60%
Income Type:Variable Dividends

Investment Categories

Credit investors can choose from multiple alternatives:

  • Government bonds (sovereign debt)
  • Corporate bonds (investment grade & high yield)
  • Structured credit (MBS, ABS, CLOs)
  • Private credit (direct lending)

Government Bonds

Government bonds, also known as sovereign debt, are debt securities issued by governments and are considered to be the safest category from the credit (default) risk point of view. While we have seen some sovereign debt defaults over history (Argentina in 2001 and several times since then, Russia in 1998, etc.), government bonds issued by developed country governments are typically very safe.

In the United States, government bonds are issued by the US Treasury and are typically categorized as:

T-Bills

Maturity:< 1 year

Short-term securities with the highest liquidity and lowest interest rate risk.

T-Notes

Maturity:1-10 years

Medium-term securities offering higher yields than bills with moderate duration risk.

T-Bonds

Maturity:10+ years

Long-term securities with highest yields but greatest interest rate sensitivity.

The yield-to-maturity (YTM) of these bonds represents the internal rate of return (IRR) that makes the present value of the cash flows equal to the market price. Short-term interest rates are determined by central banks' monetary policy (Federal Reserve in the US), while long-term rates fluctuate based on policy expectations, inflation outlook, and term premiums.

Exhibit 1: US Treasury Yield History
Source: Bloomberg Terminal

Corporate Bonds

Corporate bonds have a higher risk of default than government bonds, so investors require a higher yield and higher return from them. The extra yield on a corporate bond compared to a similar maturity government bond is called the credit spread. This spread compensates bond investors for taking higher credit risk.

There are two broad categories of corporate bonds from the credit risk perspective:

Investment Grade Bonds

Rating Range:AAA to BBB
Default Risk:Very Low

High-quality bonds with strong credit profiles and predictable cash flows.

High-Yield Bonds

Rating Range:BB and Below
Default Risk:Higher

Speculative-grade bonds offering higher yields to compensate for increased default risk.

Corporate bonds are usually rated by one or more of the three primary ratings agencies: Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch. These ratings range from AAA down to D, providing investors with standardized risk assessments.

Exhibit 2: Corporate Bond Ratings
CategoryMoody'sS&PFitchGrade
Investment GradeAaaAAAAAAPrime
Aa1AA+AA+High Grade
Aa2AAAA
Aa3AA-AA-
A1A+A+Upper Medium
A2AA
A3A-A-
Baa1BBB+BBB+Lower Medium
Baa2BBBBBB
Baa3BBB-BBB-
High Yield
(Speculative)
Ba1BB+BB+Non-Investment
Grade Speculative
Ba2BBBB
Ba3BB-BB-
B1B+B+Highly Speculative
B2BB
B3B-B-
Caa1CCC+CCC+Substantial Risk
Caa2CCCCCC
Caa3CCC-CCC-
CaCCCCExtremely Speculative
CCCNear Default
-DDIn Default
Source: Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Fitch

Historical Default Rate Analysis

Default rates vary significantly between investment grade and high-yield bonds:

Investment Grade Default Rate:< 1% annually
High Yield Default Rate:1% - 11% annually

This significant difference in default rates justifies the higher yields demanded by high-yield bond investors.

Exhibit 3: Historical Default Rates
Source: Standard & Poor's

Due to the volatile nature and higher default probability of non-investment grade corporate bonds, they offer higher returns as compensation for increased risk. Credit spreads fluctuate based on economic conditions, market sentiment, and company-specific factors.

Exhibit 4: Investment Grade and High Yield Credit Spreads Over Time
Source: Bloomberg Terminal

Structured Credit

Structured credit investments typically refer to securitized bonds—bonds backed or "collateralized" by a pool of many individual loans such as mortgage loans, credit card loans, or auto loans. These investments encompass three main categories:

Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)

Securities backed by pools of home loans and real estate debt. Agency MBS are guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Key Risk:Prepayment Risk

Asset-Backed Securities (ABS)

Securities collateralized by various consumer loans including credit card receivables, auto loans, and student loans.

Key Feature:Diversified Pool

Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)

Securities backed by pools of leveraged loans, typically to below-investment-grade companies.

Structure:Multiple Tranches

Agency MBS Characteristics

  • Government Backing: Full faith and credit of the U.S. government post-2008
  • Prepayment Risk: Borrowers can refinance at lower rates, reducing investor returns
  • Yield Premium: Higher yields than Treasuries to compensate for prepayment option
  • Interest Rate Sensitivity: Negative convexity in declining rate environments

20-Year Bond Performance Analysis

Taking higher credit risk has historically resulted in higher total returns across bond sectors, with high yield bonds outperforming investment grade by approximately 140 basis points annually
Exhibit 5: Annualized Bond Market Returns (Feb 2005 - Feb 2025)
Source: Bloomberg Terminal, StockValu8or Analysis

Private Credit

The non-public segment of credit investing has experienced significant growth following the 2008 financial crisis. Increased bank regulations and capital requirements caused traditional lenders to retreat from small and middle-market company lending, creating opportunities for direct lending or private credit.

Market Opportunity

Global Market Size:$2 Trillion

Small and middle-market companies lack access to public bond markets, creating substantial direct lending opportunities.

Retail Access

Investment Vehicle:BDC Funds

Business Development Company (BDC) funds provide retail investors access to private credit markets through publicly traded structures.

Private Credit Investment Considerations

  • Illiquidity Premium: Higher yields compensate for reduced liquidity
  • Direct Relationships: Closer monitoring and covenant protection
  • Floating Rate: Many loans have variable rates, providing inflation protection
  • Diversification: Access to non-public credit markets unavailable in traditional bonds

Professional Risk Analysis

Analyze credit investments and fixed income portfolios using our comprehensive Portfolio Optimizer, or manage portfolio risk using our Risk Radar.

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Credit investments provide essential diversification benefits and income generation opportunities within a well-balanced portfolio. Understanding the risk-return characteristics of different credit categories—from safe government bonds to higher-yielding private credit—enables investors to construct portfolios that match their risk tolerance and return objectives while providing steady income streams.